SeekingWisdom_FromDarwintoMunger

SEEKING WISDOM FROM DARWIN TO MUNGER PETER BEVELIN CONTENTS Part One One Two Three Part Two One Two Part Three One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Part Four One Two Three Four Five Six Seven Eight Nine Ten Eleven Twelve WHAT INFLUENCES OUR THINKING Our anatomy sets the limits for our behavior Evolution selected the connections that produce useful behavior for survival and reproduction Adaptive behavior for survival and reproduction THE PSYCHOLOGY OF MISJUDGMENTS Misjudgments explained by psychology Psychological reasons for mistakes THE PHYSICS AND MATHEMATICS OF MISJUDGMENTS Systems thinking Scale and limits Causes Numbers and their meaning Probabilities and number of possible outcomes Scenarios Coincidences and miracles Reliability of case evidence Misrepresentative evidence GUIDELINES TO BETTER THINKING Models of reality Meaning Simplification Rules and filters Goals Alternatives Consequences Quantification Evidence Backward thinking Risk Attitudes Charles T. Munger speech on prescriptions for guaranteed misery in life Wisdom from Charles T. Munger and Warren E. Buffett Probability Checklists To my two children, ......